Winners and Losers

The general strike in Telangana came to an end last week, just the way I had predicted. There has been a barrage of opinions and counter opinions in the media ever since, on what the strike achieved and what it didn't achieve. But I think the most important measure of understanding the impact of the strike is a profit and loss statement of the strike. There were some winners who profited out of the strike, and there were many others who lost.

First the winners:

• Kodandaram - How many people knew his name two years ago? But now he is the most popular person in AP, more popular than any movie star, celebrity or politician. People crave publicity. Not even the super stars or the super rich could get on the front page of news papers everyday, but he did. What more can any person ask for?
• KCR and Family - The TRS party expanded to all parts of Telangana and grew much stronger than it ever was. With the party being the fiefdom of KCR, it was his family which became more influential and thus more powerful. More power means more money, obviously.
• Leaders of employees unions - Especially Swami Goud. He would also be among the ten most popular persons in AP now. No amount of money can buy that kind of publicity. He and other leaders got all of it for free, without losing anything, not even their salary for the period of the strike.
• Congress Party - It is the indirect beneficiary because the main opposition party in AP, TDP, is wiped out in Telangana.
• BJP - The party has marginally improved its support base in Telangana, but not enough support to win seats on its won.

Now the losers:

• TDP - Everything worked against the party. It has been losing cadres, its very foundation, in Telangana for sometime. Now the trend has only accelerated. It is a much weaker party in Telangana now.
• Ordinary People - They were the biggest losers. A man on the street had to pay more for his daily commute to work. A family had to pay more for its groceries. Students lost valuable school days and college days. Businessmen lost money. Farmers across the state lost their crops which withered under power cut. Everybody in the state of AP had to endure longer power cuts. Lot of them wondered how their loss would achieve a separate state of Telangana.
• Democratic Culture of AP - This was the biggest and most serious loss suffered by our society, yet it went unnoticed. In the name of revolution, the educated sections of the society seem to have lost their capacity for tolerance, for meaningful public discourse. A disagreement is seen as betrayal. Everything is seen as either pro-Telangana or anti-Telangana. Rational thought vanished as emotions took over. Moderate views are loathed. Rise of this "either with me or with my enemy" attitude is not good for any democratic society.

Telangana strike will soon end and how

The indefinite general strike (called 'sakala janula samme' in Telugu) in the Telangana region of Andhra Pradesh has been going on for four weeks now, paralysing public life in the region. The government appeals to the Joint Action Committee, a committee of sundry political parties and unions which called for the strike demanding a separate Telangana state, to end the strike as it is causing prolonged inconvenience to the people. The JAC is in no mood to relent. It counters the appeals of the government saying all the people of Telangana are volutarily striking and it will continue until a separate state of Telangana is declared. Local dailies are carrying stories and pictures saying the strike is intensifying with each passing day.

It may seem like the strike is going to continue until the union government declares a separate state of Telangana. It is not going to be. I think the strike will end soon, irrespective of what the union government will announce or not announce.

Not everyone in Telangana is striking. Parents want their children to go to school. They are not striking. Farmers want power, fertilizers and seeds. They are not striking. Businessmen want to run their business. They are not striking. Indeed they all want the strike to ease, if not end. Other than the politicians and die hard Telangana activists, it is only the employees of the state government who are striking. Politicians and activists have always been staging some kind of protest or the other. People understand it is their full time job and are not much bothered by their protests. It is only the strike of the employees of the state government that is inconveniencing people. If the employees call off their strike, the general strike will instantly be rendered ineffective and will also be called off soon.

Why would the employees call off their strike? Not because they are concerned by the plight of people. But because the strike is turning out to be against their own interests. The state government has stopped paying salaries to the striking employees. They have already lost a month's pay. They can't afford to lose another month's pay. Many of them are also losing all the other income aka bribes, we know employees of some departments make lot of extra money on the job. Most of the employees would want to go back to work, but they wouldn't want to be seen as losers who gave up. They would negotiate a compromise with the government to treat all or part of the strike period as paid holiday and to issue a statement which will let them save their face. The government will eventually agree to a compromise formula and will also make a hollow statement just to show the employees as victors. And thus the strike shall end.

Lokpal Bill – No magic bullet

There is so much of hype in the media about the Anna Hazare led movement to enact a Lokpal bill aimed at rooting out corruption from our system. The movement found enormous support from the public, which surprised Mr. Hazare too. But I am not really surprised. The fight for any cause touted by the media as a ‘good cause’ finds lot of support in India, only to be forgotten quickly.

Popular perception seems to be that this bill, once passed into a law, will be the magic bullet which will eradicate corruption from our system. I am not that optimistic about the bill. Let me tell you why.

The bill, which is being drafted now, proposes to create autonomous institutions which can impartially and quickly probe allegations of corruption and punish those found guilty. In essence, the bill aims to discourage corruption by inducing ‘fear of punishment’ among the corrupt.  Contrary to popular perception, fear of punishment is not the best deterrent against corruption. Take the case of China where trials are quick and punishments are severe. But corruption is still very high in China. With our judicial system where trials go on for a very long time, I am afraid the Lokpal bill will only help to increase the number of ‘pending cases’ manifold. So we should ideally try to emulate more liberal countries like the Nordic nations which have very low levels of corruption.

Most of us think corruption is limited to the government alone. No, corruption is everywhere in India. A taxi driver who demands twice the normal charge from a desperate passenger is also corrupt. A movie exhibitor who sells tickets at double the price on the release day is also corrupt. A doctor who prescribes unnecessary tests and medicines to his/her patients is also corrupt. There is a very thin line separating corruption and profiteering. Of course, such people also extended their support to Mr. Hazare’s cause.

We can devise better ways to eradicate corruption only when we understand certain traits of human nature which make us susceptible to corruption and the circumstances that are conducive to corruption.

If there is an opportunity to be corrupt i.e. to benefit through unethical means, humans will eventually become corrupt. In other words, probity is largely a result of lack of opportunity to be corrupt. (I am trying to generalize here. There will always be men and women of impeccable integrity. But such people are exceptions.) Also if there is an alternative to get things done without paying a bribe, humans will choose the alternative rather than pay the bribe.

Our system is so flawed that there are innumerable circumstances where corruption can flourish. Each circumstance offers plenty of opportunities for a person to become corrupt. Let me attempt categorizing some of them.

• Too much of discretionary power vested with an individual or an institution - from the chief justice of India to the constable from the neighborhood police station
• Power to decide rules of the game, even change them - like cabinet ministers who decide the terms of a license, a contract ...
• Lack of transparency. Secrecy provides lot of protection to the corrupt - it happens at every government office. People generally don't even know when their application will be processed.
• Monopoly where there is no alternative to the people - like BSNL before the entry of private operators, state electricity boards only which can issue a new power connection to your house or office
• The 'expert factor' that provides protection - like doctors. We cannot even read their prescriptions
• Single or very few points of service that create long queues. Gatekeepers become very powerful here - like the passport office of Hyderabad, local government revenue office, local ration dealer...
• Demand far exceeds supply which is rationed - like the tatkal train tickets, refills of domestic cooking gas cylinders
• Thick rule book. I mean procedures which necessitate too many applications, too many approvals - People find it easier to pay bribes and get things done quickly than to follow all the rules.

The best way to reduce corruption is to reform our system so that it offers very few or no opportunities for corruption. It means curtailing discretionary powers, improving transparency, providing multiple options to people and eliminating queues. This is the true reform we as a nation need now. Lokpal or laws to try and punish the corrupt should ideally follow this reform, not precede it.

Reflections of self...

You are between 28 and 32 years of age. You have been working for more than 5 years now. You are single. You begin to notice that everything around you has changed, except you. You are still the same person. But you feel a big void within you. You just can not precisely answer why you feel so.

An accident or an incident or a bout of ill-health or a serious setback causes so much of grief that you realize life is too small. It changes your entire perspective towards life. When looked through this new perspective, you are no longer happy about those very same things you were happy until then.

You realize you are not going anywhere. And you begin to envy those 'super achievers' among your friends. Of course, you also know they might be envying some others. The career you were once very ambitious about is no longer your passion. It is just a means of earning some money. This change in attitude, most probably, would not have escaped the attention of your boss.

More kids call you 'uncle' or 'aunty' now. And you don't like it. Are you a boy/girl or a man/woman now? You tend to choose the word to suit the surroundings. All those 35+ men/women try to include you in their gang. You can not help but notice you are being included in the 'we' in phrases like "when we were in school".  You say to yourself 'not yet' and try to pull away. All those below 25's try to push you out of 'youngistan'. They don't want you to compete with them. You say to yourself 'not yet' and stick around. You wonder why there is so much of unspoken emphasis on age? 50 is young in politics. 40 is young in business. 35 is young in movies. You are not there yet and people around you don't see that. You cry it is not fair. But you know time is running out.

Your friends, one after the other, are getting married. Relatives, well wishers and friends start conversations with the pleasantry "when are you getting married" instead of the usual "how are you". It is a different thing that they never care for your answer. Almost all the married men/women tell you how good it is to get married. But their deeds don't always say the same thing. You don't believe what they say. You are afraid of the unknown. You postpone your entry into that unknown territory called marriage. But you can't articulate why.

You don't enjoy those very things you found enjoyable until not long ago. You realize you miss a lot of things in life. On top of the list is the company of a woman/man depending on your gender. How about girlfriends/boyfriends? You know they are rare specimens. Less than 10% of south Indian men of your age ever had a girlfriend. The percentage is even smaller for women. Rest of the men would have tried but failed. Rest of the women would have either expected too much or been too frightened by single men, not frightened by married men though. You know it is the truth, though everyone, including you, talks of a boyfriend or girlfriend being so common.

You are too ashamed to share this with your friends. Self-help books appear to be the only refuge in your attempt to live with the envy, the sense of mediocrity, the sense of worthlessness. But you know they are good only for reading and recommending to others. You know they don't help you. You are human after all.

High Food Inflation - cut the excuses

India is experiencing double digit food inflation. The government claims it is doing everything possible and the inflation should come down in a few weeks. Many weeks have passed, but inflation does not seem to be heeding the pleas of the government. Every time the food inflation figure comes down a bit, the government claims it is because of its policies. But every time the figure goes up, the government says it is because of factors beyond their control.

The government, its spokespersons and most of the media commentators cite many reasons for the high food inflation. The PM says he has no magic wand to control inflation. Of course, he is right. The minister for agriculture says they are doing everything possible to bring it down. The deputy chairman of planning commission, an eminent economist, says food prices are high because the incomes of the poor are rising and they are eating more. He is right. But it is not a crime for people to eat more. Is it not the duty of the government to lift the poor out of poverty?

Some policy makers, business heads and columnists regularly come forward and try to explain the reasons for high prices and  suggest remedial measures to be taken. Everything they say is a myth. Let me show you how.

• Myth 1: 'It is a random, one time phenomenon. Things should be normal next year.' - No, it is not. It is the price of onions this year, of pulses last year, of rice in the year before and of wheat in the before that. Food inflation has been consistently high for last 4 to 5 years.
• Myth 2: 'We don't have enough cold storage facilities in India. Building more of them should solve the problem.' May be true. But that does not explain the high prices of rice, wheat, pulses or even onions (onions have a higher shelf life).
• Myth 3: 'Speculative futures trading in agricultural produce is causing the prices to rise.' Futures trading in rice, wheat, pulses was banned long back. There is no futures trading in onions either. It can not be the cause.
• Myth 4: 'Middle men are hoarding the produce and artificially creating a shortage which is causing the prices to rise.' Do you believe some middle men can hoard enough stocks to jack up the prices, that too in a huge country like ours? This is simply not true.

Inflation is after all a number derived using a formula. The formula roughly is
                                           (present price - year ago price)
                           inflation = ----------------------------------------- * 100
                                             year ago price

It is always relative to the prices a year ago. If the prices a year ago were high, inflation will remain low because of base effect. It does not necessarily mean current prices are low. So the inflation figure will eventually come down after a few months because of base effect, as we will see a full year of high prices. I would not be surprised if the government comes out and trumpets it as their achievement.

The real reason behind inflation is that the demand for food is exceeding supply in our country, with the growth in demand outpacing the growth in food production. We have seen 5 years of consistently high food inflation since 2006 though all the 5 years were blessed with a reasonably good monsoon. Imagine what will happen in the year of a bad monsoon? Even worse, can we stand successive years of drought as we had seen from 2001 to 2003? We are in a precarious situation. Imports from other nations also can not help as we are too big a nation to support.

It is time our government recognizes the real cause and initiates serious long term measures to increase food production.

There are again many myths published on increasing agricultural productivity. Let me shatter those myths in another post.

Is cricket in a decline?

The pink newspapers claim that there is not as much demand as anticipated for television ad time during the ongoing cricket world cup matches. Some columnists went one step ahead to declare that cricket is in a decline. Is it really?

I think it is not cricket which is in a decline but the economy built around cricket. Last 20 years have seen this economy growing by leaps and bounds. The game was made literally more colorful. 'All white' dresses of the past gave way to more colorful ones. New formats were invented. 20-20 is the new rage. Cheer leaders upped the glamor quotient of the game. New tournaments were invented. T20 world cup is played every 2 years. 4 years is too long a gap, isn't it? New leagues were given birth to. IPL, isn't it like EPL?, has emerged as the biggest rival to bollywood. Cricket is spreading to more and more nations in the world. Every new team means 11 new players, more matches, more telecast time on TV and more ad revenues. And we have an ever expanding army of commentators. Every retired player is a commentator these days. It looks like becoming a commentator is the new retirement, more lucrative than playing in some cases. BTW, is Ganguly still playing? Some pretty faces also metamorphosed into commentators. Do you remember Mandira Bedi and her noodle straps? And who can ignore the poster boys of this economy? Every cricketer is a super model. Not just Indian cricketers, but foreign players too. They tell you what brand of alcohol to drink, what brand of watch to wear, what brand of drink quenches your thirst, what brand of  food supplement gives you energy, what automobile you should ride, what brand of clothes you should wear.. and there is no end to this list. All of us know who are laughing all their way to the bank.

But the party cannot go on forever. I think the cricket economy had seen its peak. It is in for some moderation now. You may ask what makes me think so. History. All the commercial elements of the cricket economy are designed with only one type of consumer in mind. That is the Indian cricket fan. Every cricket playing nation would want to play a series against India, so as to make some money for its cricket board. The schedules of any cricket tournament across the world are planned to suit the Indian TV viewer. In a way, all cricket related businesses are living off the Indian consumer. Isn't like like the world economy living off the American consumer until not long ago? A re-balancing will eventually follow as it did in the form of a recession for the global economy. The Indian consumer can not forever support every new player, every new commentator, every new marketer.....History also proved that monopolies don't last forever. Cricket as a game has monopoly over the Indian sports space for more than 20 years now.  There has been too much of cricket on TV in recent years, to the extent that some fans are fed up with it. In the fast globalizing Indian society, cricket is not the only 'fashionable thing' for the younger generation. With the advent of more sports channels now, Indians can watch many other sports from across the world live on TV. I would say this is the beginning of the end of cricket's monopoly.

AP Politics - Congress, PRP Merger - Advantage Chiru

Today Praja Rajyam Party (PRP) headed by Chiranjeevi is merged with Congress party. Who will gain from this development? Political analysts suggest it is advantage Congress in the state of Andhra Pradesh. They say Chiranjeevi, being a popular film star hailing from a dominant community, strengthens Congress which was weakened by the exit of Y S Jagan Mohan Reddy (Jagan). Is it so? No. I think it is advantage Chiranjeevi and disadvantage Congress

How is it going to benefit Chiranjeevi? As a political party, Praja Rajyam Party is weakening by the day. It has already lost its appeal among the people as an alternative to Congress. It is no secret that Chiranjeevi has ambition to become the chief minister of Andhra Pradesh. Without a merger with Congress, the chances of his party's winning a majority in the state assembly are remote, not impossible though. Even if he forges an alliance with either Congress or Telugu Desam Party (TDP) or the 'coming soon' party of Y S Jagan Mohan Reddy, he will be a smaller partner in the alliance. And smaller allies don't get the post of chief minister. So this merger really takes Chiranjeevi many steps closer to realizing his ambition. Moreover, there was pressure on him to show an exit route to his demoralized party men and this merger shows them a good exit route.

How is it disadvantageous to Congress? Congress is not going to gain anything immediately with the merger. If all they want is the PRP's support to their 'minority government' in the state assembly, this merger is not needed as the PRP has always been ready to support Congress. Some analysts say Congress wants a strong leader to lead it in Andhra Pradesh. I think it is not true; Congress generally does not encourage any leader, other than the members of the Gandhi family, to grow strong. Some analysts say Congress has its eyes on the next assembly elections due in 2014 and they expect Chiranjeevi to bring in enough votes to compensate for the votes Y S Jagan Mohan Reddy would take away from Congress. It is too early to predict how many votes would Jagan take away from Congress. In the assembly elections held in 2009, the PRP polled approximately 16% of the total votes polled. If anyone is expecting all those votes to go to Congress with this merger, they will certainly be proved wrong. Elections are not arithmetic. A large part of those 16% votes were anti-government votes of people who saw Chiranjeevi as an alternative to Congress. In fact, this split in anti-government votes between the TDP led alliance and the PRP was the main reason why Congress won the election. Now that the PRP is merged with Congress, all the anti-government votes might go to some opposition alliance and it does not augur well for Congress. Maintaining status quo is in the best interest of Congress, but not merger. The PRP shall support Congress, if required, in the sate assembly now. In the next assembly elections the PRP will contest without any alliance and split the anti-government votes, which will actually work in favor of Congress. After the elections, the PRP shall support Congress to form the government.