Winners and Losers

The general strike in Telangana came to an end last week, just the way I had predicted. There has been a barrage of opinions and counter opinions in the media ever since, on what the strike achieved and what it didn't achieve. But I think the most important measure of understanding the impact of the strike is a profit and loss statement of the strike. There were some winners who profited out of the strike, and there were many others who lost.

First the winners:

• Kodandaram - How many people knew his name two years ago? But now he is the most popular person in AP, more popular than any movie star, celebrity or politician. People crave publicity. Not even the super stars or the super rich could get on the front page of news papers everyday, but he did. What more can any person ask for?
• KCR and Family - The TRS party expanded to all parts of Telangana and grew much stronger than it ever was. With the party being the fiefdom of KCR, it was his family which became more influential and thus more powerful. More power means more money, obviously.
• Leaders of employees unions - Especially Swami Goud. He would also be among the ten most popular persons in AP now. No amount of money can buy that kind of publicity. He and other leaders got all of it for free, without losing anything, not even their salary for the period of the strike.
• Congress Party - It is the indirect beneficiary because the main opposition party in AP, TDP, is wiped out in Telangana.
• BJP - The party has marginally improved its support base in Telangana, but not enough support to win seats on its won.

Now the losers:

• TDP - Everything worked against the party. It has been losing cadres, its very foundation, in Telangana for sometime. Now the trend has only accelerated. It is a much weaker party in Telangana now.
• Ordinary People - They were the biggest losers. A man on the street had to pay more for his daily commute to work. A family had to pay more for its groceries. Students lost valuable school days and college days. Businessmen lost money. Farmers across the state lost their crops which withered under power cut. Everybody in the state of AP had to endure longer power cuts. Lot of them wondered how their loss would achieve a separate state of Telangana.
• Democratic Culture of AP - This was the biggest and most serious loss suffered by our society, yet it went unnoticed. In the name of revolution, the educated sections of the society seem to have lost their capacity for tolerance, for meaningful public discourse. A disagreement is seen as betrayal. Everything is seen as either pro-Telangana or anti-Telangana. Rational thought vanished as emotions took over. Moderate views are loathed. Rise of this "either with me or with my enemy" attitude is not good for any democratic society.

Telangana strike will soon end and how

The indefinite general strike (called 'sakala janula samme' in Telugu) in the Telangana region of Andhra Pradesh has been going on for four weeks now, paralysing public life in the region. The government appeals to the Joint Action Committee, a committee of sundry political parties and unions which called for the strike demanding a separate Telangana state, to end the strike as it is causing prolonged inconvenience to the people. The JAC is in no mood to relent. It counters the appeals of the government saying all the people of Telangana are volutarily striking and it will continue until a separate state of Telangana is declared. Local dailies are carrying stories and pictures saying the strike is intensifying with each passing day.

It may seem like the strike is going to continue until the union government declares a separate state of Telangana. It is not going to be. I think the strike will end soon, irrespective of what the union government will announce or not announce.

Not everyone in Telangana is striking. Parents want their children to go to school. They are not striking. Farmers want power, fertilizers and seeds. They are not striking. Businessmen want to run their business. They are not striking. Indeed they all want the strike to ease, if not end. Other than the politicians and die hard Telangana activists, it is only the employees of the state government who are striking. Politicians and activists have always been staging some kind of protest or the other. People understand it is their full time job and are not much bothered by their protests. It is only the strike of the employees of the state government that is inconveniencing people. If the employees call off their strike, the general strike will instantly be rendered ineffective and will also be called off soon.

Why would the employees call off their strike? Not because they are concerned by the plight of people. But because the strike is turning out to be against their own interests. The state government has stopped paying salaries to the striking employees. They have already lost a month's pay. They can't afford to lose another month's pay. Many of them are also losing all the other income aka bribes, we know employees of some departments make lot of extra money on the job. Most of the employees would want to go back to work, but they wouldn't want to be seen as losers who gave up. They would negotiate a compromise with the government to treat all or part of the strike period as paid holiday and to issue a statement which will let them save their face. The government will eventually agree to a compromise formula and will also make a hollow statement just to show the employees as victors. And thus the strike shall end.