Today Praja Rajyam Party (PRP) headed by Chiranjeevi is merged with Congress party. Who will gain from this development? Political analysts suggest it is advantage Congress in the state of Andhra Pradesh. They say Chiranjeevi, being a popular film star hailing from a dominant community, strengthens Congress which was weakened by the exit of Y S Jagan Mohan Reddy (Jagan). Is it so? No. I think it is advantage Chiranjeevi and disadvantage Congress
How is it going to benefit Chiranjeevi? As a political party, Praja Rajyam Party is weakening by the day. It has already lost its appeal among the people as an alternative to Congress. It is no secret that Chiranjeevi has ambition to become the chief minister of Andhra Pradesh. Without a merger with Congress, the chances of his party's winning a majority in the state assembly are remote, not impossible though. Even if he forges an alliance with either Congress or Telugu Desam Party (TDP) or the 'coming soon' party of Y S Jagan Mohan Reddy, he will be a smaller partner in the alliance. And smaller allies don't get the post of chief minister. So this merger really takes Chiranjeevi many steps closer to realizing his ambition. Moreover, there was pressure on him to show an exit route to his demoralized party men and this merger shows them a good exit route.
How is it disadvantageous to Congress? Congress is not going to gain anything immediately with the merger. If all they want is the PRP's support to their 'minority government' in the state assembly, this merger is not needed as the PRP has always been ready to support Congress. Some analysts say Congress wants a strong leader to lead it in Andhra Pradesh. I think it is not true; Congress generally does not encourage any leader, other than the members of the Gandhi family, to grow strong. Some analysts say Congress has its eyes on the next assembly elections due in 2014 and they expect Chiranjeevi to bring in enough votes to compensate for the votes Y S Jagan Mohan Reddy would take away from Congress. It is too early to predict how many votes would Jagan take away from Congress. In the assembly elections held in 2009, the PRP polled approximately 16% of the total votes polled. If anyone is expecting all those votes to go to Congress with this merger, they will certainly be proved wrong. Elections are not arithmetic. A large part of those 16% votes were anti-government votes of people who saw Chiranjeevi as an alternative to Congress. In fact, this split in anti-government votes between the TDP led alliance and the PRP was the main reason why Congress won the election. Now that the PRP is merged with Congress, all the anti-government votes might go to some opposition alliance and it does not augur well for Congress. Maintaining status quo is in the best interest of Congress, but not merger. The PRP shall support Congress, if required, in the sate assembly now. In the next assembly elections the PRP will contest without any alliance and split the anti-government votes, which will actually work in favor of Congress. After the elections, the PRP shall support Congress to form the government.
How is it going to benefit Chiranjeevi? As a political party, Praja Rajyam Party is weakening by the day. It has already lost its appeal among the people as an alternative to Congress. It is no secret that Chiranjeevi has ambition to become the chief minister of Andhra Pradesh. Without a merger with Congress, the chances of his party's winning a majority in the state assembly are remote, not impossible though. Even if he forges an alliance with either Congress or Telugu Desam Party (TDP) or the 'coming soon' party of Y S Jagan Mohan Reddy, he will be a smaller partner in the alliance. And smaller allies don't get the post of chief minister. So this merger really takes Chiranjeevi many steps closer to realizing his ambition. Moreover, there was pressure on him to show an exit route to his demoralized party men and this merger shows them a good exit route.
How is it disadvantageous to Congress? Congress is not going to gain anything immediately with the merger. If all they want is the PRP's support to their 'minority government' in the state assembly, this merger is not needed as the PRP has always been ready to support Congress. Some analysts say Congress wants a strong leader to lead it in Andhra Pradesh. I think it is not true; Congress generally does not encourage any leader, other than the members of the Gandhi family, to grow strong. Some analysts say Congress has its eyes on the next assembly elections due in 2014 and they expect Chiranjeevi to bring in enough votes to compensate for the votes Y S Jagan Mohan Reddy would take away from Congress. It is too early to predict how many votes would Jagan take away from Congress. In the assembly elections held in 2009, the PRP polled approximately 16% of the total votes polled. If anyone is expecting all those votes to go to Congress with this merger, they will certainly be proved wrong. Elections are not arithmetic. A large part of those 16% votes were anti-government votes of people who saw Chiranjeevi as an alternative to Congress. In fact, this split in anti-government votes between the TDP led alliance and the PRP was the main reason why Congress won the election. Now that the PRP is merged with Congress, all the anti-government votes might go to some opposition alliance and it does not augur well for Congress. Maintaining status quo is in the best interest of Congress, but not merger. The PRP shall support Congress, if required, in the sate assembly now. In the next assembly elections the PRP will contest without any alliance and split the anti-government votes, which will actually work in favor of Congress. After the elections, the PRP shall support Congress to form the government.
1 comment:
Most of the votes are cast based votes and votes from Andhra region. PRP did not get 16% in other regions except in Coastal Andhra and few parts of Rayalaseema. We may have to see Chiranjeevi as a celebrity political Effigy.
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